Here just outside of the Liacouras Center, I stand with Assistant Dean Joseph McLaughlin, who has presided as adviser over this thesis project since last spring.

Today I graduated from Temple University and, unsurprisingly, he was there to congratulate me.

I turned in my thesis for a grade two weeks ago. Still, though I’ve graduated, I will be taking on his revisions before I place the paper here and wipe my hands clean of the project – for now.

Michael Meehan is a powerful guy in the city’s Republican Party – for whatever that means. But it occurred to me that that isn’t always explained why.

One doesn’t need Meehan’s permission to run, of course. But this state’s elections, like those in much of the country, expect it. The blessing of the Republican committee comes with the promise of making the ballot and much less competition than in the Democratic Party. In the small pond of the Republican Party, Meehan holds influence to divvy available jobs, which keeps some Philadelphians registered with the party. Thus, in deciding that the party will support a particular candidate, ward leaders and committeemen rarely deviate from Meehan’s choices.

One can briefly encapsulate the selection process thusly: the Republican Party selection committee – which Michael Meehan leads – chooses a candidate and the party’s 67 ward leaders ratify that decision. Meehan’s control over the committee and effective sway over most ward leaders makes him as powerful as an unelected Republican can be in this city.

Photo courtesy of History Cooperative.org.

When I interviewed Michael Meehan, he mentioned that the latest total he saw put registered Republicans in Philadelphia at more than 147,000. He called that the largest county-wide total in the Commonwealth. Methinks he misspoke, easy to do because, I wouldn’t be surprised, for centuries that was true of Philadelphia.

But the past month there was a flurry of research into regional registrations after it was reported Montgomery County went Democratic, and because it is the state’s most populous, turns out that while Philadelphia’s GOP isn’t the state’s largest, it is among them, and those that beat it are all neighbors.

Using totals collecting by the Committee of Seventy (Seventy-PDF), Philadelphia has 145,439 registered Republicans and 799,381 Democrats.

Bucks County – 181,696 registered Republicans and 185,381 Democrats

Chester County - 147,010 registered Republicans and 113,278 Democrats

Delaware County – 188,834 registered Republicans and 156,608 Democrats

Montgomery County – 240,053 registered Republicans and 240,232 Democrats

Carton courtesy of Christine Berry.

Clearly, I overestimated the influence of Johnny Dougherty and underestimated Vince Fumo-backed Larry Farnese.

In yesterday’s primary, not only did Hillary squeak with a victory, but Farnese beat Dougherty in what, I can admit, was a surprise to me and it seems others, too.

Fumo showed the love he has for Dougherty, as suggested by the story by the Daily News:

Fumo and City Councilman Frank DiCicco, who have feuded with Dougherty for years, led a small crowd of supporters chanting, “Doc is dead, Doc is dead,” at Farnese’s victory celebration at the Paradiso restaurant on Passyunk Avenue.

Dougherty “finally put himself on the line against someone who nobody knew and he got his ass kicked,” Fumo told a reporter. “What else can you ask for?”

Now, Larry Farnese is the Democrat for the first Senate seat, to fill in for retiring Fumo. There is a Republican challenger, Jack Morley, who has even gotten mention on the progressive site Young Philly Politics, but he may not enter in the conversation.

He has gotten viral on Phillyblog but Morley might facing in Farnese something like what Mayor Michael Nutter was in last Spring’s Democratic mayoral election. Farnese won big in places like Society Hill, where reform-minded progressives rejected Dougherty, perceived as a machine Democrat. Fumo set aside, Farnese became the reform candidate, despite connections to the in-power party, just like Nutter.

That pushes Morley out of the equation. If he wants to even be competitive, he needs to rely heavily on Farnese’s connections to Fumo, who will be undergoing a 139-count indictment-based trial right as the election nears.

Sen. Barack Obama embraces Philadelphia City Councilman Bob Brady and is applauded by Gov. Ed Rendell before speaking during a Democratic Unity Rally at Temple University's McGonigle Hall October 21, 2006 in Philadelphia. (Photo by William Thomas Cain/Getty Images)

Tomorrow Pennsylvania may decide whether the Democratic candidate for President will be Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., or former Philadelphia mayor and current Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell’s choice, Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.

Rendell has said he’ll support whoever the Democratic candidate is, but it is interesting to see how Rendell has supported Clinton, whose husband was a staunch ally of his during his mayoralty from 1992 to nearly 2000. This a Salon article from earlier this month:

The Clintons have always had plenty of friends in Pennsylvania, though Hillary’s recent focus on her childhood in the Scranton area didn’t get quite as much play until her campaign came to depend on winning the state. Ed Rendell, whose success as Philadelphia’s reform-oriented mayor in the 1990s became the model for some of Bill Clinton’s national urban policy, and who went on to become chairman of the Democratic National Committee under Clinton, is now the state’s popular two-term governor. He’s practically taken the month off from his day job to help Hillary, bustling around in her motorcade and introducing her to all his fans. Rendell feeds the Clinton nostalgia, as well, reminding voters in the Philadelphia suburbs how well the city did during Bill’s administration (and, ahem, Ed’s). [Source]

But, during a Democratic unity rally in October 2006 (depicted above), Rendell, who was in the midst of a gubernatorial challenge from Republican and former Pittsburgh Steeler Lynn Swann, had Obama, a quickly rising star, at his side.

Photo courtesy of Day Life.

For those most interested in the seeming hesitance for black voters, particularly, to resist voting for the Republican Party, one of the most interesting thoughts is if a black candidate outside the Democratic Party ran. I was asked one question after my TURF presentation and defense of this thesis project and that was just it.

Do you think a black Republican candidate could sway black voters towards the GOP?

“No,” I said.

I have written on the dilemma of black hesitance to go Republican here before. It is a lot trickier than we often think.

Philadelphia has never seen a black candidate run for a citywide office without the “D” after his name, so I answered the question using the most recent, most local example.

In 2006, Ed Rendell ran for a second term as Pennsylvania’s Governor. Rendell is a Philadelphia cat in a state that has its issues with its largest city. So, he was unquestionably vulnerable. The commonwealth’s GOP thought it had the perfect candidate to run against a populist Democrat in a largely conservative state, a big name, socially rightist black. Lynn Swann, a former wide receiver for the Pittsburgh Steelers, was one of three black men running gubernatorial campaigns as Republicans.

It was part of an initiative by then-GOP Chairman Ken Mehlman to court black voters, particularly those who would identify with the party’s Christian foundation and socially conservative platform. That platform came on the heels of the 2004 presidential election during which George W. Bush got 11 percent of the black vote, compared with 9 percent in 2000.

But, it didn’t work out, exactly.

Rendell was pulling nearly nine out of 10 black voters in Philadelphia, according to a Philadelphia Tribune/Ron Lester & Associates poll from Nov. 3, which might speak volumes to how Rendell thundered over Swann by 20 percentage points.

Hear highlights of Rendell’s victory speech back from November 2006, as recorded and edited by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Former Ohio Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell was another highly touted black Republican who ended up losing. Blackwell, like Swann faced stark challenges.

Whites of both major parties are less likely to vote for their parties’ candidate if he or she is black, according to a report by National Public Radio from July 2006. More troubling, and perhaps more damaging to Swann, is that whites who identify themselves as politically independent are more likely to vote for a white Democrat than a black Republican, as Rendell and Swann may have learned.

Both black and white voter turnout increases up to three percentage points with every black Democratic Party candidate on the ballot, though it doesn’t increase statistically when the candidate is a black Republican, according to the Quarterly Journal of Economics, as cited by NPR.

Again, as I’ve posted before, racial politics have to be different in a Philadelphia election than even a state-wide battle. Though Rendell’s polling data among black Philadelphians seem to cater to the notion that blacks are thoroughly loyal to the Democratic Party and that the machine so deviously strong, Rendell is an unusually popular figure in the city, which may inaccurately characterize the situation.

Still, Philadelphia’s Republican City Committee has courted black candidates before, so, while anything might be worth shaking up the current status of general elections, it is important to keep this in mind.

Photo by Carolyn Kaster of the Associated Press from November 2006 Rendell victory speech, courtesy of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

Kevin Kelly at left with for U.S. Congressman Newt Gingrich at a Philadelphia Republican meetup meeting on April 1, 2007.

This evening I sat in on a meeting of the loyal opposition, a group of some in the city’s Republican community who are looking to create a viable GOP in Philadelphia.

The group is led by Kevin Kelly, a former president of the Philadelphia Young Republicans, and a businessman determined to see an active two-party system in the city. He’s developed a meet-up group online and is all for converting Democrats to create competition.

After the meeting, a perhaps surprisingly diverse group of 15, including guys like the long-time 5th ward Republican leader Mike Cibik. They were fielding questions from Philadelphia magazine writer Steve Volk and discussing their own positions on the party.

Afterwards, I got to speak to Kevin Kelly alone, and he was largely critical of the complacency into which the city’s GOP had fallen, he said.

“I reward results,” Kelly said. “If you were zero for the last 50 years in any other job in the world, would you still have that job?”

His movement and critique will find a large part in my paper.

Photo courtesy of Philadelphia Republican Meet up Group.

Outgoing State Senator Vince Fumo and his likely replacement John Dougherty, notorious (and occasionally in trouble) business manager for Local 98 of the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, are not known to be friends.

Fumo is retiring Nov. 30 after 30 years of service, due, at least in part, to his looming September trial on 139 different counts of corruption.

But, it seems that Dougherty may take over for the legendary South Philadelphia row-house Machiavelli and Mensa member. Dougherty is expected to win the Democratic primary on April 22, and, what, haven’t you learned yet that Republicans don’t matter in this city?

Talk his had of his two other Democratic rivals, Center City activist Anne Dicker and Main Line lawyer Larry Farnese, but little is made of the Republican challenger, Jack Moreley. Add the First State Senate district to the list of elections in which the primary serves as the election.

He got a nod in a Philadelphia Daily News article on the candidates’ varied views on Philadelphia approving plans for slot-casinos.

Photo edited from one courtesy of Hallwatch.org.

It came as little surprise when former Philadelphia Mayor and current Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton in her bid for the U.S. Presidency back in January.

But few may have guessed how much time and energy he would devote to her presidency. I can’t help but think how this effects politics in Philadelphia, particularly as Mayor Michael Nutter joins Rendell and Clinton’s competitor Sen. Barack Obama continues to roll up other city government endorsements in Philadelphia.

Whether this further split the city’s Democratic Party that already has lines along reform and machine, or simply assure some foothold for  Philadelphia no matter which Democratic candidate gets the nomination when and if it comes to urban funding and legislation. The Clintons have been friends to Philadelphia before, largely though Rendell, would Obama be the same?

See an interesting interview of Rendell by Bill Maher on his Real Time program, during which Rendell speaks on his support for Clinton.

Photo courtesy of CBS News.

In a story missed by Philadelphia media, Sen. Barack Obama is clashing with Philadelphia’s old style politics, as first reported by the Los Angeles Times.

Fourteen months into a campaign that has the feel of a movement, Sen. Barack Obama has collided with the gritty political traditions of Philadelphia, where ward bosses love their candidates, but also expect them to pay up.

The dispute centers on the dispensing of “street money,” a long-standing Philadelphia ritual in which candidates deliver cash to the city’s Democratic operatives in return for getting out the vote.

There are 69 wards in Philadelphia, each meant to have a Republican and Democratic leader, charged with, aside from being the smallest political unit, getting out the vote. Typically, candidates pay these ward leaders to do just that, a few hundred dollars, depending on the election, for lunches, car services, subway tokens, and the trouble, you might say. Most often, these ward leaders, who might skim some themselves, pass it off the lion’s share to committee representatives who do the real distribution.

And, as reported, the Obama campaign feels this is a process they don’t need. With a movement of young, motivated ideological supporters getting out Obama’s vote, his campaign directors have decided this is a waste of resources. Ward leaders and other machine politicians in Philadelphia are quick to warn of potential ramifications.

Obama’s posture confounds neighborhood political leaders sympathetic to his cause. They caution that if the senator from Illinois withholds money that gubernatorial, mayoral and presidential candidates have willingly paid out for decades, there could be defections to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York. And the Clinton campaign, in contrast, will oblige in forking over the money, these ward leaders predict.

“We’ve heard directly from the Obama organizer who organizes our ward, and he told us it’s an entirely volunteer organization and that I should not expect to see anything from the Obama campaign other than ads on TV and the support that volunteers are giving us,” said Greg Paulmier, a ward leader in the northwest part of the city.

Carol Ann Campbell is about as important to this city’s machine as anyone, so her take is, unsurprisingly, part of the equation and evaluation of Obama’s decision, particularly considering she is a super delegate who, after formerly being a Clinton-woman, has decided to support the Senator from Illinois.

Carol Ann Campbell, a ward leader and Democratic super delegate who supports Obama, estimated that the amount of street money Obama would need to lay out for election day is $400,000 to $500,000.

“This is a machine city, and ward leaders have to pay their committee people,” Campbell said. “Barack Obama’s campaign doesn’t pay workers, and I guarantee you if they don’t put up some money for those street workers, those leaders will most likely take Clinton money. It won’t stop him from winning Philadelphia, but he won’t come out with the numbers that he needs” to win the state.

Photo courtesy of Casual Casualty.